Delta E+ · SFUCanadian energy & climate policy — inventory for C2070
Purpose. A structured inventory of federal and provincial policies relevant to the C2070 energy model, how each maps onto the model's mechanisms, and which region it applies to. The final column is a draft suggestion of baseline-calibration vs scenario — for discussion, not yet implemented.
Analysis cutoff: July 2026. Captures policy developments through mid-2026. The most recent items reflected: Quebec cap-and-trade draft amendment (May 2026), federal industrial-price benchmark trajectory update (May 2026), federal EV Availability Standard repeal (Feb 2026), and the federal fuel-excise suspension (Apr 2026). Re-verify before publication — see the volatility note at the bottom.
How the "modelled as" column maps to the code
| Model mechanism | In the code |
|---|---|
| Carbon price | EmissionsPenalty[CO2, year] ($/t) |
| RE share (min renewable % of a province) | UDC re_share in ProvincialPolicies |
| Emission cap (max Mt from a province) | UDC emission_cap_mt in ProvincialPolicies |
| Emission-intensity cap (t/GWh on power) | UDC over power techs (new policy type — §6.4 of model description) |
| Plant retirement (e.g. coal by 2030) | ResidualCapacity→0 and/or TotalTechnologyAnnualActivityUpperLimit=0 |
| New-build support (nuclear/SMR, renewables) | ResidualCapacity additions / TotalAnnualMinCapacity |
| Demand-side / upstream | outside the electricity core — demand input or out of scope |
Federal policies
| Policy | Status (as of mid-2026) | What it requires | Modelled as | Applies to | Draft: baseline or scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial carbon pricing (federal OBPS + benchmark) | Active; benchmark under review 2026, trajectory being extended to 2040 | Marginal price on large-emitter GHGs. ~$95/t (2025), rising; endpoint uncertain ($115–$170/t by 2030 depending on source) | EmissionsPenalty |
All (federal backstop in MB, PE, YT, NU; provinces run equivalents elsewhere) | Baseline — core price signal |
| Consumer carbon charge | Removed 1 Apr 2025 | (was a fuel levy) | Not modelled (demand-side; now gone) | — | Baseline: absent |
| Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) | Finalized 17 Dec 2024; net-zero target moved 2035 → 2050 | ≤ 65 t CO₂/GWh 2035–2049; near-zero by 2050; per-unit + flexibilities | Emission-intensity cap on power (UDC, new type) | All provinces | Baseline (current law) — a stricter 2035 case is a scenario |
| Coal-fired electricity phase-out | Federal 2030; being contested (SK) | No conventional coal generation after 2030 | Coal ResidualCapacity→0 by 2030 |
SK, NS, NB (AB/ON already coal-free) | Baseline — with an SK coal-retention scenario |
| Oil & gas emissions cap | Draft (Nov 2024); enactment uncertain | Cap-and-trade on upstream O&G; 1st period 2030–32 at −27% vs 2026 | Out of scope (upstream O&G, not electricity) — note only | O&G producing provinces | Out of scope (flag) |
| EV Availability Standard (ZEV mandate) | Repealed Feb 2026; replaced by tighter vehicle GHG standards (~75% ZEV by 2035 aspiration) | (was rising ZEV sales share) | Demand-side — affects electrification of transport demand | All | Baseline: absent; electrification enters via demand |
| Clean Fuel Regulations | Active | Declining carbon intensity of liquid fuels → biofuel blending | Partially in scope via biofuels (BIO/SUP* seam) |
All | Baseline (light) — WS3 biomass link |
Provincial policies
| Province | Policy | Status | What it requires | Modelled as | Draft: baseline or scenario |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | CleanBC + large-emitter OBPS | Active; consumer carbon tax removed Apr 2025 | Target −40% GHG by 2030 (2007 base); ~98% clean grid already; industrial carbon price | EmissionsPenalty (BC OBPS); grid already near-100% renewable |
Baseline (grid), targets as scenario |
| BC | ZEV sales target | Reduced to 75% by 2035 (from 100%) | rising ZEV share | Demand-side | Scenario (demand) |
| AB | TIER industrial carbon pricing | Active | Output-based price on large emitters | EmissionsPenalty (TIER) |
Baseline |
| AB | Coal phase-out | Achieved 2024 (coal-free) | — | Coal residual = 0 already | Baseline (fact) |
| SK | SaskPower net-zero-2050; coal continuation | Net-zero 2050; province plans to run coal past 2030 (legal challenge) | Slower coal retirement | Coal ResidualCapacity kept past 2030 |
Scenario (SK coal retention vs federal 2030) |
| MB | ~97% hydro grid | — | (little binding) | Existing hydro residual capacity | Baseline (data) |
| ON | Emissions Performance Standard (EPS) | Active; no cap-and-trade (cancelled 2018) | Industrial carbon price | EmissionsPenalty (EPS) |
Baseline |
| ON | Nuclear refurbishment + SMR (Darlington) | Under construction | New nuclear capacity | Nuclear ResidualCapacity/min-build |
Baseline (committed units) |
| ON | Coal-free electricity | Achieved 2014 | — | Coal residual = 0 | Baseline (fact) |
| QC | SPEDE cap-and-trade (WCI, linked to California) | Active; draft amendment May 2026 — price to $115/t (2030), $140/t (2040) | Declining cap; −37.5% by 2030 (1990 base); net-zero 2050 | EmissionsPenalty (C&T price proxy); grid ~99% hydro |
Baseline (price), cap tightening as scenario |
| QC | ZEV mandate | Active | rising ZEV share | Demand-side | Scenario (demand) |
| NS | Clean power plan / EGCCRA | Active | Coal out by 2030; 80% renewables by 2030; net-zero electricity 2035 | Coal retirement + UDC re_share; power emission cap 2035 |
Baseline (legislated) |
| NB | Coal phase-out + SMRs | Active | Coal out by 2030; net-zero electricity 2035; SMRs | Coal retirement; new nuclear | Baseline |
| NL | ~95% hydro (Muskrat Falls) | — | (little binding) | Existing hydro residual capacity | Baseline (data) |
(Atlantic province rows NS/NB map to the aggregated AT zone in the model; NL is L1.)
Reading this for C2070
What's genuinely in scope. C2070 is an energy-system model with an electricity core, so it
represents cleanly: carbon prices (EmissionsPenalty), electricity RE-share and emission-cap
policies (UDC), coal/plant retirements (residual capacity), and committed nuclear/renewable
builds. Biomass/biofuel policy links to the WS3 seam.
What isn't. The oil & gas upstream cap is out of the electricity/energy-conversion scope unless upstream O&G production is added. The EV/ZEV mandates are demand-side — they shape the electricity demand trajectory (which comes from CER Energy Futures) rather than a supply constraint, so they enter through the demand scenario, not a UDC.
Aggregation caveat. NS and NB have distinct coal-phase-out and renewable obligations but
share the model's AT zone. If those differences matter to results, AT needs splitting
(the zone-split path in the model description).
⚠️ Policy volatility — read before trusting the baseline
The 2025–2026 period saw unusually large rollbacks, which makes "current policy" a moving target and the single most important caveat for calibration:
- Consumer carbon charge removed (Apr 2025).
- CER net-zero-grid target weakened from 2035 to 2050 (Dec 2024).
- Federal EV Availability Standard repealed (Feb 2026).
- Federal fuel excise suspended (Apr 2026).
- Federal industrial benchmark under review (2026) with an uncertain post-2030 trajectory.
- SK actively resisting the coal-2030 deadline.
Implication: the baseline should encode enacted, current-force policy (post-rollback), and
the pre-rollback / more-ambitious versions become scenarios. Pin each figure to its source
and date in data/SOURCES.md when implementing, because several will change again.
Sources
Federal: CER finalized (Blakes) · net-zero pushed to 2050 (Global News) · industrial carbon pricing (Canada.ca) · 2026 benchmark review (ClearBlue) · consumer price removed (Finance Canada) · O&G cap (Norton Rose) · EV standard repeal (Electric Autonomy)
Provincial: BC carbon tax eliminated (BC Gov) · Alberta coal-free 2024 (Pembina) · Quebec SPEDE (ICAP) · Quebec draft amendment (Dentons) · SK coal past 2030 (CBC) · NS clean power plan · NB/NS coal-2030 (National Observer)
This inventory addresses climate/energy policy only. It is not legal advice; enactment status of several items is contested and should be re-verified at implementation.