Roadmap

Progress parsed from ROADMAP.md.

Detail

OSeCAN — Roadmap to a full-fledged model

Living tracker from the current working skeleton (real demand + placeholders) to a production model with full Canadian open data and full visualisation. Check boxes off as tasks are crossed. Legend: [x] done · [~] in progress · [ ] todo.

Last updated: 2026-07-22 (v0.3).

v0.3 — ARCHITECTURE SETTLED (Elias & Taco, 2026-07-22): single OSeMOSYS REGION, geography in zone codes, all transmission as technologies, provincial policy via UDC. Trade not used. Verified solving optimal, UDC verified binding. See docs/model-description.md.

Phase 0 — Foundation ✅ (done)

• [x] model_structure.py — multi-province energy + biomass vocabulary (land/water delegated)
• [x] sets_n_ratios.py — energy-only set builder; 13 zones, 2021–2070; tests green
• [x] Reproducible uv project (pyproject, lockfile, wheel-based solver)
• [x] Staged data layout (external → interim → mapped → params) + provenance manifest
• [x] retrieve (open-data downloader w/ sha256) + harmonize (params⊆SETS gate)
• [x] Full placeholder parameter set (build_params) + WS3/FABLE seams
• [x] Real demand: CER EF2026 → SpecifiedAnnualDemand (validated ≈2,040 PJ elec 2025)
• [x] Pipeline: assemble → datafile → preprocess → LP → solve OPTIMAL (GLPK, 19s)
• [x] Diagnostics bundle + auto-updated modelling_review.md
• [x] Dashboard (HTML), transmission map (GADM), MkDocs site, code reference (HTML)

Phase 1 — Real Canadian data (replace placeholders) [~]

• [ ] ResidualCapacity ← CER electricity-capacity-2026 + CODERS (existing fleet by province/tech)
• [ ] Transmission capacity ← CER electricity-interchange-2026 (interprovincial) + provincial data (intra-provincial) — replaces TransmissionLinks placeholders
• [ ] Zone demand split ← IESO zonal / AESO planning areas / BC Hydro regions (replace ZoneDemandShare)
• [ ] CapitalCost / FixedCost ← CER assumptions / NRCan / cross-check pypsa-canada
• [ ] VariableCost (fuel prices) ← CER end-use-prices / benchmark-prices
• [ ] EmissionActivityRatio ← ECCC National Inventory Report factors
• [ ] EmissionsPenalty / emission limits ← federal OBPS schedule + Clean Electricity Regs
• [ ] DiscountRate ← Canadian social discount rate (decide 3% vs 5%)
• [ ] Write a cleaner per source (mirror clean_demand pattern); each pinned in data_sources.yaml
• [ ] harmonize green after every swap; log each in modelling_review.md

Phase 2 — Temporal resolution [ ]

• [ ] Replace single annual timeslice with seasonal/diurnal slices (demand + VRE profiles)
• [ ] CapacityFactor per timeslice ← RESource wind/solar + hydro monthly profiles
• [ ] SpecifiedDemandProfile from CER/hourly load shapes
• [ ] Re-check solve time + feasibility at higher temporal resolution

Phase 3 — Biomass & WS3 integration [ ]

• [ ] Provincialise biomass feedstock supply (SUP*) — one per grid
• [ ] WS3 feedstock supply curves → TotalTechnologyAnnualActivityUpperLimit + VariableCost
• [ ] Biomass conversion techs per feedstock (power, heat, biofuel, +CCS)
• [ ] Document the WS3→OSeCAN interface (units, resolution, frequency)

Phase 4 — FABLE linkage [ ]

• [ ] FABLE food-demand / land-constraint hand-off (soft-link inputs)
• [ ] Define shared land-accounting boundary (what stays external)
• [ ] Ingestion script (mirror clean_demand)

Phase 5 — Full visualisation [~]

• [x] Extract solved results → result CSVs (direct GLPK extractor in pipeline/solve.py)
• [x] Populate dashboard Outputs tab: capacity, generation, emissions, net flows
• [x] Template-driven report (vis/templates/report_template.html) — all inputs+outputs, per-plot info button
• [x] Light theme across figures; Cambria default
• [x] Results-driven transmission map (solved flows, direction colours)
• [ ] Per-province result plots; nexus/biomass flow view

Phase 6 — Scenarios [ ]

• [x] Provincial policy mechanism — solved by UDC (v0.3): ProvincialPolicies in model_structure.py becomes UDC rows. RE share and emission caps implemented; verified binding.
• [ ] Populate real provincial policies (BC/QC clean-electricity targets, AB TIER, coal phase-outs)
• [ ] Scenario overlay layer (config-driven param/constraint switches)
• [ ] CER scenarios (Current Measures / Canada Net-zero / Higher / Lower)
• [ ] Net-zero-2050 emission-limit trajectory + Clean Electricity Regs case

Phase 7 — Validation & calibration [ ]

• [ ] Base-year generation/capacity vs CER/StatCan historicals
• [ ] Interties vs actual transfer ratings
• [ ] Sensitivity ranking (which inputs move results most) before deep calibration
• [ ] Resolve outstanding BC Hydro validation item (per workplan §3.4)

Phase 8 — Reproducibility & workflow (last phase) [ ]

• [ ] Snakemake workflow/Snakefile orchestrating all stages (build → data → solve → plots)
• [ ] uv.lock committed; vendored model file + sha256 recorded
• [ ] CI smoke build (clean-machine uv sync + osecan build-sets + tests)

Phase 9 — Docs & delivery [ ]

• [ ] Fill remaining [confirm] sources in data/SOURCES.md
• [ ] Finalise MkDocs site (results pages, methods, provenance) + deploy
• [ ] Contract deliverables mapping (Tasks 1–6) cross-checked

How this tracker is maintained

Check a box when a task is crossed; add sub-tasks as they surface. osecan run appends run outcomes to modelling_review.md (issues/logs); this file holds the forward plan.